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The Markov Process in Medical Prognosis
J.Robert Beck, M.D.
Stephen G. Pauker, M.D.
The physician's estimate of prognosis under alternative treatment plans is a principal factor in therapeutic decision making. Current methods of reporting prognosis, which include five-year survivals, survival curves, and quality-adjusted life expec tancy, are crude estimates of natural history. In this paper we describe a general- purpose model of medical prognosis based on the Markov process and show how this simple mathematical tool may be used to generate detailed and accurate assessments of life expectancy and health status. (Med Decis Making 3:419-458, 1983)
Medical Decision Making, Vol. 3, No. 4,
419-458 (1983)
DOI: 10.1177/0272989X8300300403
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J. W. Loewy, A. S. Kapadia, B. Hsi, and B. R. Davis
Statistical Methods That Distinguish between Attributes of Assessment: Prolongation of Life versus Quality of Life
Med Decis Making,
June 1, 1992;
12(2):
83 - 92.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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S. D. Ramsey and M. D. Nettleman
Cost - Effectiveness of Prophylactic AZT Following Neediestick Injury in Health Care Workers
Med Decis Making,
June 1, 1992;
12(2):
142 - 148.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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J. S. Mandelblatt, M. E. Wheat, M. Monane, R. D. Moshief, J. P. Hollenberg, and J. Tang
Breast Cancer Screening for Elderly Women with and without Comorbid Conditions: A Decision Analysis Model
Ann Intern Med,
May 1, 1992;
116(9):
722 - 730.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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B. E. Hillner, T. J. Smith, and C. E. Desch
Efficacy and Cost-effectiveness of Autologous Bone Marrow Transplantation in Metastatic Breast Cancer: Estimates Using Decision Analysis While Awaiting Clinical Trial Results
JAMA,
April 15, 1992;
267(15):
2055 - 2061.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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M. Stockler
Better Right than Quick?
Med Decis Making,
February 1, 1992;
12(1):
76 - 77.
[PDF]
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M. G. Kahn
Modeling Time in Medical Decision-support Programs
Med Decis Making,
December 1, 1991;
11(4):
249 - 264.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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E. A. Chrischilles, C. D. Butler, C. S. Davis, and R. B. Wallace
A Model of Lifetime Osteoporosis Impact
Arch Intern Med,
October 1, 1991;
151(10):
2026 - 2032.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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D. N. Rose, C. B. Schechted, and A. L. Silver
Isoniazid Prophylaxis for Young Adults
Arch Intern Med,
September 1, 1991;
151(9):
1884 - 1884.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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M. Krahn, C. D. Naylor, A. S. Basinski, and A. S. Detsky
Comparison of an Aggressive (U.S.) and a Less Aggressive (Canadian) Policy for Cholesterol Screening and Treatment
Ann Intern Med,
August 15, 1991;
115(4):
248 - 255.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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A. R. Castellano and M. D. Nettleman
Cost and Benefit of Secondary Prophylaxis for Pneumocystis carinii Pneumonia
JAMA,
August 14, 1991;
266(6):
820 - 824.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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J. R. Beck
Decision-making Studies in Patient Management: Twenty Years Later
Med Decis Making,
June 1, 1991;
11(2):
112 - 115.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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A. J. Munro and P. R. Warde
The Use of a Markov Process to Simulate and Assess Follow-up Policies for Patients with Malignant Disease: Surveillance for Stage I Nonseminomatous Tumors of the Testis
Med Decis Making,
June 1, 1991;
11(2):
131 - 139.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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B. Djulbegovic, J. Hollenberg, T. M. Woodcock, and R. Herzig
Comparison of Different Treatment strategies for Diffuse Large-cell Lymphomas: A Decision Analysis
Med Decis Making,
February 1, 1991;
11(1):
1 - 8.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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J. B. Wong, F. A. Sonnenberg, D. N. Salem, and S. G. Pauker
Myocardial Revascularization for Chronic Stable Angina: Analysis of the Role of Percutaneous Transluminal Coronary Angioplasty Based on Data Available in 1989
Ann Intern Med,
December 1, 1990;
113(11):
852 - 871.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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A. N. A. Tosteson, D. I. Rosenthal, L. J. Melton III, and M. C. Weinstein
Cost Effectiveness of Screening Perimenopausal White Women for Osteoporosis: Bone Densitometry and Hormone Replacement Therapy
Ann Intern Med,
October 15, 1990;
113(8):
594 - 603.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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J. S. Schwartz, B. P. Kinosian, W. P. Pierskalla, and H. Lee
Strategies for Screening Blood for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Antibody: Use of a Decision Support System
JAMA,
October 3, 1990;
264(13):
1704 - 1710.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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In reply
Med Decis Making,
August 1, 1990;
10(3):
224 - 224.
[PDF]
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V. Velanovich
Choice of Treatment for Stage I Floor-of-Mouth Cancer: A Decision Analysis
Arch Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg,
August 1, 1990;
116(8):
951 - 956.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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C. Mooney, A. I. Mushlin, and C. E. Phelps
Targeting Assessments of Magnetic Resonance Imaging in suspected Multiple sclerosis
Med Decis Making,
June 1, 1990;
10(2):
77 - 94.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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N. V. Dawson and R. D. Cebul
Advances in Quantitative Techniques for Making Medical Decisions: The Last Decade
Eval Health Prof,
March 1, 1990;
13(1):
37 - 62.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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M. D. Hagen, M. H. Eckman, and S. G. Pauker
Aortic Aneurysm in a 74-year-old Man with Coronary Disease and 0bstructive Lung Disease: Is Double Jeopardy Enough?
Med Decis Making,
December 1, 1989;
9(4):
285 - 299.
[PDF]
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J. Tsevat, M. H. Eckman, R. A. Mcnutt, and S. G. Pauker
Warfarin for Dilated Cardiomyopathy: A Bloody Tough Pill to Swallow?
Med Decis Making,
August 1, 1989;
9(3):
162 - 169.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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L. J.A. Stalpers, H. J.M. Van Gasteren, and W. A.J. Van Daal
DEALE-ing with Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates
Med Decis Making,
June 1, 1989;
9(2):
150 - 152.
[PDF]
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C. D. Koprowski, W. T. Longstreth Jr, and R. D. Cebul
Clinical Neuroepidemiology: III. Decisions
Arch Neurol,
February 1, 1989;
46(2):
223 - 229.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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J. R. Feussner and D. B. Matchar
When and How to Study the Carotid Arteries
Ann Intern Med,
November 15, 1988;
109(10):
805 - 818.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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P. J. Roach, C. Fleming, M. D. Hagen, and S. G. Pauker
Prostatic Cancer in a Patient with Asymptomatic HIV Infection: Are Some Liues More Equal than Others ?
Med Decis Making,
June 1, 1988;
8(2):
132 - 144.
[PDF]
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M. J. Barry, A. G. Mulley Jr, F. J. Fowler, and J. W. Wennberg
Watchful Waiting vs Immediate Transurethral Resection for Symptomatic Prostatism: The Importance of Patients' Preferences
JAMA,
May 27, 1988;
259(20):
3010 - 3017.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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