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Medical Decision Making
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FluSurge—A Tool to Estimate Demand for Hospital Services during the Next Pandemic Influenza

Xinzhi Zhang, MD, PhD

MS # D-59, CDC/NCID/OD/OS, 1600 Clifton Rd NE, Atlanta, GA 30333; phone: (404) 371-5364; fax: (404) 371-5445; XZhang4{at}cdc.gov

Martin I. Meltzer, PhD, MS

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Office of Surveillance

Pascale M. Wortley, MD, MPH

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Immunization Program

Purpose. To assess the impact of pandemic influenza on hospital services. Methods. Based on census data and estimates of hospital resources (non-ICU [intensive care unit] beds, ICU beds, and mechanical ventilators) in a given area, FluSurge software estimates the number of hospital admissions and deaths due to pandemic influenza under variable duration and virulence scenarios and compares hospital resources needed during a pandemic with existing hospital resources. Results. Sample results from Metropolitan Atlanta illustrate how the next influenza pandemic may overwhelm existing hospital resources, given that hospitals increasingly operate at nearly full capacity. Conclusions. Hospitals need to consider and plan for a surge in demand for hospital services during the next influenza pandemic.

Key Words: delivery of health care • hospital planning • resource allocation

Medical Decision Making, Vol. 26, No. 6, 617-623 (2006)
DOI: 10.1177/0272989X06295359
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