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Medical Decision Making
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Sensitivity Analysis on a Chance Node with More Than Two Branches

Peter P. Sendi, MD

Robert T. Clemen, PhD

Sensitivity analysis is an essential part of decision analysis. The literature on medical decision analysis suggests the use of two-branch chance nodes in decision trees to avoid logical inconsistencies during sensitivity analysis. The authors show that the two- branch decomposition is not appropriate for sensitivity analysis when multiple out comes from a single state cannot be disentangled into a sensible sequence of events. They recommend retaining the natural structure of the tree and propose two sensitivity- analysis methods for use on chance nodes with three or more branches. Key words: sensitivity analysis; decision analysis; decision tree; probability. (Med Decis Making 1999;19:499-502)

Medical Decision Making, Vol. 19, No. 4, 499-502 (1999)
DOI: 10.1177/0272989X9901900418
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Home page
 Med Decis MakingHome page
A. H. Briggs, A. E. Ades, and M. J. Price
Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis for Decision Trees with Multiple Branches: Use of the Dirichlet Distribution in a Bayesian Framework
Med Decis Making, July 1, 2003; 23(4): 341 - 350.
[Abstract] [PDF]