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Medical Decision Making
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Qualitative Probability versus Quantitative Probability in Clinical Diagnosis

A Study Using a Computer Simulation

Tim Chard, MD

The use of Bayes' theorem as a diagnostic tool in clinical medicine normally requires an input of exact probability estimates. However, humans tend to think in categories ("likely," "unlikely," etc.) rather than in terms of exact probability. A computer simulation of the pre senting features of a case of pelvic infection has been used to compare the effects of quantitative and qualitative probability estimates on the diagnostic accuracy of Bayes' theo rem. For the commoner conditions (prior probability ≥ 0.2) the use of a two- or three-category system is virtually equivalent to the use of exact probability. However, uncommon conditions (prior probability ≤ 0.03) are completely ignored by the qualitative system. It is concluded that the use of simple categories of probability is acceptable for a Bayesian diagnostic system provided that the target conditions have a relatively high prior probability. Key words: Bayes' theorem; quantitative probability; qualitative probability; computer simulation. (Med Decis Making 1991;11:38-41)

Medical Decision Making, Vol. 11, No. 1, 38-41 (1991)
DOI: 10.1177/0272989X9101100106
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[Abstract] [PDF]